The ModelHealth family of models

Community Health Advisor — What is microsimulation modeling?

HealthPartners Institute’s health economics team began working on economic models in 1999. These models have been used in many ways to inform policy and medical decision-making. The work has grown to include a family of models known as HealthPartners Institute’s ModelHealth microsimulation models. These models address conditions such as obesity, tobacco use, colorectal and cervical cancers, sexually transmitted diseases and cardiovascular disease. We conduct analyses for the U.S. Prevention Services Task Force and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Key projects using the ModelHealth family of models

Value ranking of clinical preventive services

Under the support of the National Commission on Prevention Priorities, we published our third ranking of recommended preventive services in 2017. These nationally influential rankings show the greatest benefit for health and value in terms of cost-effectiveness. Previous rankings published in 2001 and 2006 helped better align preventive services with value.

Aspirin for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease and colorectal cancer

Considering potential harms such as serious bleeding in the stomach or brain, we identified people most likely to benefit from long-term aspirin use. This helped the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force update its aspirin recommendation, with guidance tailored by age and sex on who should take daily aspirin to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease and colorectal cancer.

Community Health Advisor

We developed the Community Health Advisor as a tool to compare the disease prevention impact of evidence-based policies and programs on communities. This public website was developed with funding from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. It shows the impact of policies and programs as many as 30 years into the future at the national, state or county level.

Team-based care model for treatment of high blood pressure

With the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, we used ModelHealth: CVD (cardiovascular disease) to estimate the potential health impact and medical costs that could be prevented if we adopted team-based treatment of high blood pressure nationwide. This study found that this policy would prevent more than half a million events related to cardiovascular disease. It would also save more than $2 billion in health care costs over 10 years.

Impact on childhood obesity of taxing sugar-sweetened drinks

Would taxing sugar-sweetened drinks reduce childhood obesity? How about banning fast-food ads directed at children? Or starting after-school physical activity programs? This study found that taxing 1 cent per ounce on sugar-sweetened drinks would be the most effective change, reducing obesity in 13 to 18 year olds in the United States by 2.4 percent by 2032.